The Market is SMOKIN' right now!!

Very nice few days.. I have to admit I was expecting the worst. But that call on the VIX a few days go was very profitable for those of you who acted on it. I'll admit, I didn't act enough.

Great buy triggers on MAT and TSCO today on the open.
The webinar went well tonight there was only one problem. The sound didn't come out on the recording, so I'm going to do it again.

I'm going to do an exact duplicate of what I did plus I'll add a little more on Forex. I will practice first to be sure I can record it successfully with video and sound, then it will be available on the members only website.

Here's my sincere appology for you folks who I promised would get to see a recording...

I'M VERY VERY SORRY :-(

Mark

PS - have a great week-end!! Next week could be very very hot so watch for my emails.

PSS - Did you see my nap video on the last post ? Take a look...

Still seem to be Rallying...

The DIA is about to give us trigger buy on the daily chart... However a 50% retrace from the high of 135.50 to the low of 115.80 would give us about 126.00. Meaning near 126.00 would be a nice place for price to resume a downtrend.

That said I don't think I'd be long until we were beyond the 50% retrace. Equally as important would be the 61.8% retrace, so between 126 and 128 is a fair retrace area for a move to the downside.

As you can see I'm bearishly influenced. With the VIX and price action pretty much across the board we are in the midst of a nice bull rally. I should have jumped on bullish stocks when that VIX hit 36.00. (see that post down below somewhere.)

As of now on the Russles 3000, 2304 stocks are up today!! Thtas pretty bullish.

My plan right now is to try to capture some bullish profits next week before we reach that 50-61% retrace zone, provided theres still room on Monday.

If thats not the case, then Ill wait for some directional indication and start building trades.

Thats all for now.

PS - My wife won't usually allow me to do this, but when she's out shopping I like to take the phone off the hook about 3:00 and do this...

Lots of Opp's on the horizon...

Well it seems 3-10 times a year I find that opportunity abounds. I simply do my scans and I see a common denominator. Its true that the markets down and its also true that after the recent rally we can't be sure if we are correcting for a larger move down or will the next move down be a correction for resuming our past bullish trend.

I might guess what I THINK is going to happen, but I wouldn't bet on it, so like you I will use my wits to identify potential positions for the now.

Here's what I'm finding. As you know the market has recently rallied rather nicely. So we need to understand that 1 of 2 things will soon happen.

1.) This is a correction for a longer term bearish market. (The recent rally is a correction.) or
2.) This is the beginning of the market resuming the bullish trend.

If #2 was true then we should expect a correction before the move up, and if #1 is true then the market should move down as well.

Either way, very soon if not immediately we should get a move down.

That said I'm bearish.

Does that make sense ?

Two good examples are QCOM and FDG

QCOM is at resistance and in an industry that's way down.
FDG - is way over extended to the upside from the recent rally.

I believe I will look for these 2 types of conditions tomorrow.

Ill let you know what I find.

Wal-Mart Short (Not Long)

About an hour after the open I decided to use yesterdays swing as a signal and this one as a trigger. I didn't make any money on the trade but the process was interesting and some of you can pick up some key points.

Hey, and I can pick some up from you as well. I'm always learning :-)

It's been an incredibly long day so G'night

Mark

Sorry I'm so late with this, like I said its been a LONG DAY!!

Bull Market ??? Check Out The VIX

A quick glance at the VIX (Volatility index for the S&P's) will tell you that we are making a high right now that is the likes of Aug., 2007 and before that it was March of2003.


My point is the VIX is making a HUGE high right now. It is certainly possible that the VIX is invalid because of this crunch were in, but in the event that the VIX is accurate, lets investigate and get ready for a large bounce or a nice bull run.

In telechart the VIX is VIX--X. A gap up tomorrow would be awesome. It would put it potentially at some all time highs. The opportunity is when the VIX starts falling, because when the VIX is falling the markets are rising.

Keep your eyes peeled. I will look for opportunities with the VIX in mind. I'm still sitting on the sidelines today.

Mark

FMCN 32% $1600.00 - FEAR WEEK !!

Not a great trade, in fact had I not slept in, I would have gotten out on the open and done much better. However I guess I won't complain.

Also - I've had company and we've been skiing and duck hunting so I've been out of the loop a little. I'm back now and going through the markets to see what I can find. I will keep you posted.

Its 3 Degrees here right now !!!!

This is FEAR WEEK. We need to take advantage of profit taking. I'm no Sooth Sayer (?) but I would imagine headlines like this will instill fear. I will be looking for FEAR trades.

Duck Hunting

Well we are nearing the end of duck hunting season so I'm taking my son and nephew out tomorrow. Were not that good with a duck call, so I downloaded some good mallard calls to my foxpro and now I sound like a pro. (I hope thats legal in Idaho, hate to get caught doing something Illegal... I mean I hate to do something illegal) lol :-)

I'm going to take some video while we hunt, should I put it up on the blog ??

I'll let you guys decide that, let me know.

:-) Mark

The Forex Trade From Today 1/18

This first shot is the critical moment, were also looking at a 5min, chart here instead of the 15 minute because I'm trying to make a decision. Count back 14 bars here and that where I entered at the green dashed line.

The reason this candlestick at present is so critical is because since I entered we made a lower high swing, and are now about to potentially make a higher high. When your in short that's a NO NO!

However even if I was wrong about direction, (and I was.) I can still salvage the trade (to a degree.) as I did in the next picture...

After the higher high there was a doji candlestick. If the next candlestick went higher I would had to exit with a little loss of 20+ pips. As you can see the next candlestick didn't make a new high so even if price was going up there was a good chance it would come down to half way between the low and the high before moving up again. It did, and that's where I exited.

So I got in at 1.9532 and exited at 1.9540 for.

Some of you need to study the swings I'm talking about here. If you can get your hands around this it can save your butt. This is the swing tracking referred to in the manuals.

Lastly - There was also some divergence between price and the MACD on the chart right above this line. You can barely see the MACD, but there was significant bullish divergence. Had I noticed that early on I would have likely waited for another set-up.

Notice MACD was making higher lows, while price was making lower lows.

Hey You Have A Great Week-end !!

PS - I'm still in FMCN (Totally unlike me to do this.)

Forex LIVE Entry!

Just entered this as we speak... GBP/USD. Don't forget if you want the Swing trading material, it goes up $100.00 next week.

http://www.swingtradingmoneymachine.com/indexdeal.html

FMCN - 32% $1600.00 Bucks !

I'm still in the FMCN trade. I Plan to exit tomorrow. I considered an exit today but the markets really tanking right now and tomorrow could be significant.

I will likely not enter any trades tomorrow and if I do they will be for the day only. Ill email you and post to the blog if I find and/or enter new trades.

Ill post my exit tomorrow.

:-) Mark

Going to go watch 24!

I'm in the middle of season 6 of 24, good show. I often dream that me and Jack Bauer are in a tunnel chasing a terrorist, and I'm on point. LOL :-)


Anyway I'm still in the short overnight, I was up $300.00 on the close we'll see how I do tomorrow. (FMCN)



I felt good about my entry at the red circle because of the previous swing high and my entry at a lower swing high. I stayed in during the reversal because it failed to make a new high. Not bad. I stayed in over night because I'm a risk taker!

G'Night

Mark

1/15 New watch-list for tomorrow

I'm still watching yesterdays watch-list. I would like to add that these are not ideal times for the conservative trader to trade. If risk is not tolerable for you, then just sit and watch for now.

On the other hand if you can tolerate risk, I believe I have found a couple for you.

Take a look at GIFI, this could be a nice short tomorrow all the way to $26.00 or further.

Heres my complete watch-list:

RVSN - short
HNP - short
YUM - short
FMCM - short
GIFI - short **
SKF - long
DXD - long
DUG - long
SDS - long
IEF - long
HLEX - long
CLNE - long

The reason its so risky right now is the market is just vacillating back and forth, one day there's
a solid short set-up and the next day it's long and vice-versa. This is why no matter what the
watch-list suggests watch the opening hours.

Ill post any entries in the morning.

Good Night

Mark

1/15/08 Forex GBP/ USD

I got 3 triggers on the GBP/USD today. Here's the third. The firs two were small.

Notice the perfect 261.8 Fibs exit. NICE!



The red circles are my long entry and exit. Notice the retrace of sorts at the entry point, and if you have the STMM then you should recognize the trigger.

PS - I didn't make any stock entries today, it was to fast for me.

Mark

Long Turned to a Short 1/15/08.

Great example of how mid trigger you can get a beautiful trade opposite if what you anticipated. Take a look at STP on a daily, it was gave a nice trigger for long, but there's always the possibility that a new trigger negates the original.

This turned out to be a nice short. A short term short, but a short none-the-less.
Looking for a retracement today to enter short.

BPL, also a nice short as anticipated, but BIG SPREAD and no volume.

Mark

Watch-list 1/15/08 - Who's Ready To Rock !

Hello every one! (After you look at the watch list and video, be sure to look at EXTREME BUBBLES at the bottom of the post!)

Remember these are my watch-list picks, and although its 1/14, I've labeled the post 1/15.

Watch the video if you want some insight. NOT that I cover every detail, because lets face it, how much time do you want to spend reading my BLOG. Exactly...

Here's the list :

STP
CBZ
AG
MTL
ANH **
RIG
TIP
STR
UEPS
HUM
DMLP
IBN
TAP (short)
AGP
DVAX
CI
BPL (short) **
HIFN

Two stars are my favorites, I think those are positioned nicely to move. These I'm excited to get up in the morning and check on.

Here's the 5 yr. old and 2 yr. old taking a bubble bath. This was to funny. They crank up the Jacuzzi tub and its like a bubble machine. if I let them they would fill up the whole bathroom!

G'Night everyone, Ill send out any action as soon as I get in.
Mark

When I'll be Handing Out My Picks...

So what the heck ?? Didn't you all know that today would bounce? Just like a basketball, even if the markets going to be a grizzly bear, it still had to bounce today.

That's the main reason I wanted out yesterday.

Just so were clear I'm going to do my picks on the blog about 1-2 times a week, provided there is stuff to share that I'm confident we can profit from. With 4 kids, its hard to pull away and do anything.

Here's what my 2 year old does to me all day long....

This is my view from my desk. He hops up here every 60 minutes or so and wants..... something.

A ride on the quad, a marker to dirty up my white board, or he's mad cause mom spanked him.

Today he just hopped up and requested tools to do some sort of work, and kindly spilled a glass of water all over my desk.

At any rate this little guy is one of 4 reasons we'll be limiting picks to twice weekly max.

The only exception will be when we enter every day for a week during a new trend. These weeks are the weeks some of you should wait to trade for. YES, wait until these times to enter, it's a great concept.

I call it stealing. :-)

G'Night -

New Blog for trades

This will serve as a nice medium to discuss our trades. It will definitely be better than answering 400 emails a day.

So starting with today's trades. I'd like to say that I was nervous about staying in a trade overnight that was up over 50%, so we exited at 66%. This was Qwest (Q) and the April 2008 $5.00 put.

Next was USG(USG Corp.) we had the May $27.50 put and sold it today for 13%

Last was Cadence Design Systems. it moved nicely today, looked good on the chart but was at
a break even so that could easily turn into a losing situation.

So 66%, 13% and a break-even.

Not a bad day.

In this shot of Q we entered about an hour after the open. I knew by the end of the day I would exit because we were up over 50%. I realize the exit looks perfect, but that was just luck.

If you look at the last 2 candlesticks circled in red, the profit was at $750.00 on the second to last actually for like the last 3 candlesticks and I was just waiting for the market makers to give it up!

Then the very last candlestick made the jump to $1500.00 and I made my exit.

Again it was just luck that the thing bounced hard after that.

Here's Qwest when the trigger signal came but I wasn't paying attention.

So this entry would have been 4 days previous, it would have resulted in much more profit and more confidence to stay with the trade.

The next shot is when I did enter and my best description as to why.

Its called A=C Where you have 3 waves, (price moves in waves, and the length of A (Already present) gave me the confidence for at least the day.

Plus my interpretation of the VIX was bearish and that also gave me the confidence.

Until next time..